NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...01z update... An intensifying upper trough over AZ is progged to continue amplifying as it makes its way over the southern Rockies this evening and into late tonight. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet will emerge over the southern Plains around 06z, helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over northeast NM and the northwestern TX/OK Panhandles. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the surface low will aid in developing low-topped thunderstorms across West TX and into parts of far southwest OK between 8-12z. Likely elevated above the surface stable layer, and with limited buoyancy owing to poor boundary-layer dewpoints in the 30-40s F, storms are not expected to be overly intense. However, very strong low and mid-level wind fields ahead of the trough/low my support the risk for occasional gusty/damaging winds with the line of storms. Will maintain the MRGL risk across west-central TX with a slight northward nudge into southwest OK for the latest CAM guidance.
